The first optimistic forecast in recent times: IATA gives 3 scenarios for the development of the aviation industry and tourism

Created on 28.05.2021 10:33

The first optimistic forecast for the pandemic and the recovery of air travel and tourism was presented by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). According to the experts of the association, tourists are already tired of lockdowns and quarantines and are willing to travel in the short and long term. Governments are encouraged to increase their support for more efficient operations.

“We are in the deepest and most severe crisis in our history. The damage from the COVID-19 crisis will be felt for years, but all signs indicate that people are protecting their needs and desire to travel, ”said IATA Managing Director Willie Walsh. As an example, he has cited a 100% increase in the number of bookings in Portugal by British tourists, as soon as the borders opened for them and this country was one of the few tourist countries on the "green" list.

"The rapid growth of the vaccinated population and the success of testing will bring back freedom to fly in the coming months. When that happens, people will want to travel," Mr. Walsh added.

IATA presents three scenarios based on optimistic expectations:

1. In 2021, the number of passengers around the world will grow to 52% of the 2019 level.

2. In 2022, up to 88% of pre-pandemic COVID-19 levels

3. In 2023, the number of tourists will not only return to the pre-pandemic levels, but will also reach 105 percent of the 2019 level due to the accumulated demand.

By 2030, the number of passengers worldwide will reach 5.6 billion. Further on, however, air traffic growth is expected to slow down.

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